This article evaluates the accuracy of solar forecast models, including SolarAnywhere®, as a function of geographic footprint ranging from a single point, to regions spanning several hundred kilometers. The forecast time horizons range from one-hour ahead, to two-days ahead. In addition, a new accuracy metric is introduced that quantifies the cost of remedying forecast errors with backup generation if the forecasts overpredict, or with curtailment in cases of underprediction.
The high share of PV energy requires greater system flexibility to address the increased demand/supply imbalance induced by the inherent intermittency and variability of the solar resource. In this work, we have developed a methodology to evaluate the margins for imbalance reduction and flexibility that can be achieved by advanced…
The ability to forecast solar irradiance plays an indispensable role in solar power forecasting, which constitutes an essential step in planning and operating power systems under high penetration of solar power generation. Since solar radiation is an atmospheric process, solar irradiance forecasting, and thus solar power forecasting, can benefit from…
Grid-connected solar power generation, either dispersed or centralized, has developed and grown at the margin of a core of dispatchable and baseload conventional generation. As the penetration of this variable resource increases, the management of the underlying core gradually becomes more complex and costly. The challenge ahead for grid-connected solar…
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